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April 2012 Albuquerque Real Estate Market Report
Here are the headlines (in bold, with my comments below):
- The median sales price for single family detached homes rose 5.92% from April 2011, the highest level since July 2011.
The median sales price is just barely rebounding to 2009 levels. (Still 11% below the peak in 2007)
The top selling price range was $200K-$249K, followed closely by $140k-$159k.
The median sales price is $174,775, the first increase in home values since April 2007.
The average is $211,186, the first increase since 2007 . (Still 13% below the peak in 2007)
There has also been a 25% increase in homes sold for more than $300k, over last April including five $1M+ homes
- Home sales for single family detached homes rose 6.53 % from the previous year.
Inventory also fell by 24% creating the lowest supply-demand ratio in the past twelve months.
There are currently 6.74 months supply of homes listed.
- April 2012 was the 2nd time in 2012 that Pending sales for single family detached homes passed the 1000 mark.
This was the 2nd month in row and the only two times in the past year.
- Gene’s Spin:
I believe this increase is driven by high demand by first time home buyers which has served to solidify housing prices under $200k and pent-up demand by first time move-up buyers (under $300k) who have been waiting for the economy to stabilize. The lowest interest rates in decades combined with the growing availabilty of distressed listings (short sales and foreclosures) has also helped. I think the luxury homes market has been spurred by more realistic pricing by sellers and the appearance of more than a few luxury distressed homes.
My best guess is that demand in all price ranges will continue to grow in the short term. Potentially spoiling conditions could be rising interest rates and the potential for more foreclsoures flooding the market.
- ADO Spin:
There were five closed sales in the ADO area in April, three below $200k, one between $200-$300k, and one over $300k. Buyers love the ADO area and will consider it for the right price. There are seven Pending sales in the ADO area, three below $200k, three bewteen $200-$300k, and one over $300k. With 13 active listings (six below $200k, four from $200-$300k, and three over $300k) it looks like our absortion rate (the number of months to sell all homes in the inventory is two months for sub $200k listings, four months for $200-$300k, and three months for over $300k) are well below the ABQ average.
As always, feel free to ask any questions!
Active, Pending, Closed, Last Eight Weeks
New Active Listings
HARP 2.0. Who Does it Help?
HARP 2.0 is the second version of the federal mortgage refinancing program.
According to the LA Times the following loans are eligible:
- Only loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are eligible. Underwater borrowers who have FHA, VA, or other types of mortgages are not. Both companies’ websites — http://www.fanniemae.com and http://www.freddiemac.com — offer “look up” features that tell you whether they own your loan.
- Your mortgage must have been purchased or securitized by either company no later than May 31, 2009, and must have a loan to value ratio in excess of 80%. This means that if you have more than 20% equity, you are not eligible and can refinance conventionally.
- You must be current on your loan with no 30-day late payments during the six months preceding application
and no more than one late payment during the last 12 months.
If you think you qualify, you can contact your servicer and ask how to proceed. There are still a couple of glitches which may jump up and bite you. For instance, not all mortgage insurance companies have signed on as of yet. The bottom line is if you are deeply underwater on your mortgage and you think you meet the above criteria, it’s worth a try.
ADO Homes Active, Pending, Closed, Last Six Weeks
New Active Listings
4308 Heritage Pl NE, 2246 sf, $269,900
4721 Tennessee St NE, 1255 sf, $149,900
4526 Sherwood St NE, 2076 sf, $250,000 (Team Listing! Call to see.)
5004 San Pedro Ct NE, 2006 sf, $204,900
4101 Constance Pl NE, 1800 sf, $180,000
8128 Florence Ave NE, 1502 sf, $159,900
5000 La Fiesta Dr NE, 2055 sf, $169,900 (Attached)
6311 Driscoll Ave NE, 1897 sf, $190,000
6023 Whisperwood Ct NE #2, 1242 sf, $156,900 (Attached)
5012 La Fiesta Dr NE, 1980 sf, $200,000 (Attached)
7616 Northridge Ave NE, 2769 sf, $275,000
Pending Listings (price is the list price at contract) (DOM = days on market)
4205 Penelope Pl NE, 1869 sf, $169,500, 383 DOM
4504 Kingston Ave NE, 1230 sf, $150,000, 183 DOM
6021 Brenda Ave NE, 1826 sf, $99,900, 105 DOM (Bank Owned)
4801 Northridge Ct NE, 4497 sf, $219,000, 586 DOM
4713 Norma Dr NE, 1548 sf, $149,900, 90 DOM
8221 Bart Ave NE, 1630 sf, $125,000, 74 DOM (Bank Owned)
7427 Northridge Ave NE, 1744 sf, 168 DOM (Attached)
7104 Vista Del Arroyo Ave NE, 2181 sf, 85 DOM
4244 Louisiana Blvd NE, 1842 sf, 21 DOM (Attached)
4147 Alcazar St NE, 1700 sf, 216 DOM (Short Sale)
Closed Listings (original list price/contract sales price)
7635 Arroyo Del Oso NE, 2485 sf, $339,900/$307,450, 315 DOM
4213 Whisperwood Pl NE, 1231 sf, $159,500/$143,000, 113 DOM (Attached)
4113 Constance Pl NE, 1749 sf, $189,900/$155,000, 284 DOM (Short Sale)
7908 Northridge Ave NE, 2771 sf, $368,000/$340,000, 114 DOM
4825 Northridge Ct NE, 3000 sf, $325,000/$280,000, 88 DOM (Bank Owned)
4824 Vista Del Oso Ct NE, 1864 sf, $200,000/$160,000, 160 DOM (Attached)
6412 Baker Ave NE, 2434 sf, $319,000/$280,000, 224 DOM
4801 Vista Del Oso Ct NE, 1936 sf, $235,000/$224,000, 55 DOM (Attached)
Pending Sales Up Again. So What?
So, what does the continuing rise in Pending sales signal? Good question. I know almost everybody in the real estate profession hope it means that the good old days are right around the corner, that soon we will return to normalcy. Well, I’ve got news for them: the good old days are probably gone forever, just as they always have been. So what does the future hold?
For Buyers: In my humble opinion we probably have two more years before housing begins to appreciate again. I think that we probably are about 60% of the way through the foreclosure bubble so I’m guessing that we have one more year of falling values (maybe 5%) and then a year of plateau, before we head back up. These artificially low-interest rates can’t last forever (can they?). We’ve been saying that “interest rates are at historic lows” for what seems like three years. Sooner or later that has to end. All in all, it’s a great time to buy. Foreclosures and short sales are providing incredible opportunities for buyers in all price ranges and in the past six months are finally beginning to affect the sales prices of non-distressed homes. The one thing I would caution buyers about is that short sales and bank-owned properties are now listed fairly close to the amount that banks will approve, so the value is built-in to the price. I would guess that this is the case in about 75% of all “distressed” listings today. A good Realtor can help you determine if that is the case. The bottom line is that buyers who take advantage of these low rates/prices today will be very happy with their investment in 5-10 years.
For Sellers: If you read the above advice for buyers, you can extrapolate what that means to you. I have spoken to many folks who were willing to sell, but were horrified with “what their house is worth today”. “I’ll just wait awhile until prices come back,” they say. What I have begun tell sellers is that that’s fine, if they want to wait ten years. As a I detailed above, I believe we are two years away from appreciating house prices and when they start back up, they aren’t going to just snap back, it will take time. It’s important for sellers to understand what they want to accomplish and if that doesn’t include living in their current home for the next ten years, biting the bullet and doing what they need to do while they can buy their next home at a great price with a great rate may be the right move today. (A final thought for sellers: If you are behind on your payments whether you want to stay in your home or not, DO NOT suffer foreclosure. There are alternatives and foreclosure should be a last, last, last choice. Contact a Realtor with distressed property experience. )
For Investors: If you have a longer horizon (say ten years) and don’t mind getting into the rental game, you can find very desirable property in great neighborhoods. The rental market is exploding at present and at the very least you can find properties which will be revenue neutral for the first couple of years, then give you some cash flow, and finally appreciate enough over the next ten years to really be a good investment.
The bottom line for next year is that the lower price ranges should continue to prosper while higher price properties (say over $300k) will sell if they are priced properly. Out of adversity comes great things, for those that willing to move now.
ADO Homes Active, Pending, and Closed, Last Six Weeks
Active
7104 Vista Del Arroyo Ave NE, 2181sf, $285,000
4604 Downey NE, 1453sf, $179,900
8221 Bart Ave NE, 1630sf, $134,900 (Bank-owned)
8208 Bart Ave NE, 1400sf, $149,900
4527 Downey St NE, 1640sf, $180,000
5133 La Fiesta Dr NE, 1252sf, $148,500 (Attached)
7700 Osuna Rd NE, 2711sf, $317,500
Pending (price is the list price at contract) (DOM = days on market)
4713 Norma Dr NE, 1548sf, $149,900, 84 DOM
4213 Whisperwood Pl NE, 1231sf, $144,500, 113 DOM (Attached)
6412 Baker Ave NE, 2434sf, $299,900, 224 DOM
4504 Kingston Ave NE, 1230sf, $150,000, 176 DOM
4824 Vista Del Oso Ct NE, 1864sf, $175,000, 160 DOM (Attached)
Closed (original list price/contract sales price)
6421 Katson Ave NE, 2178, $285,000/$255,000, 200 DOM
4809 Vista Del Oso Ct NE, 2048sf, $255,000/202,600, 152 DOM (Attached)
6100 Osuna NE, 1275sf, $149,900/$143,800, 18 DOM (Attached)
7008 Lantern Rd NE, 2480sf, $325,000/$315,000, 192 DOM
